Bitcoin planning
How much Bitcoin do you need to retire?
Describe the retirement lifestyle you want and the assets you have today. Compare transparent Bitcoin scenarios, estimate when your portfolio could reach its FIRE target and test how withdrawals may affect it.
Uses the Base scenario. Edit its assumptions in Explore scenarios below.
FIRE means Financial Independence, Retire Early. Your FIRE number is an estimated portfolio target: annual retirement spending divided by the illustrative withdrawal rate. The common 4% starting point comes from US investment research, so it is not a universal or Bitcoin-specific rule.
Uses an editable 4% illustrative withdrawal rate. Scenarios are not predictions.
Explore scenarios
Your retirement
Portfolio mode
Superannuation / pension
Bitcoin scenarios
Withdrawal strategy
Start with your retirement spending and adjust it for inflation each year.
Can your stack get there?
FIRE age assumes contributions continue until the target is reached. Retirement outcome assumes withdrawals begin at your planned retirement age.
- If contributions continue
- Age 79
- At planned retirement
- 34% of target at age 50
- Retirement outcome
- Portfolio depleted at age 59
- If contributions continue
- Age 62
- At planned retirement
- 43% of target at age 50
- Retirement outcome
- Portfolio depleted at age 65
- If contributions continue
- Age 56
- At planned retirement
- 56% of target at age 50
- Retirement outcome
- Funded through age 90
Bitcoin required at different prices
No date is assumed. Each row asks how much Bitcoin would cover today’s FIRE target if BTC were priced at that hypothetical amount.
| BTC price | Total BTC needed |
|---|---|
| $100,000 | 11.5 BTC |
| $200,000 | 5.75 BTC |
| $500,000 | 2.3 BTC |
| $1,000,000 | 1.15 BTC |
| $2,000,000 | 0.575 BTC |
Retirement spending in Bitcoin
Illustrative scenarios exclude tax, fees, debt, account rules and actual Bitcoin volatility. Historical performance is not a forecast.
Methodology and assumptions
FIRE stands for Financial Independence, Retire Early. The FIRE number divides your annual retirement spending by an illustrative withdrawal rate. The common 4% starting point comes from US research on diversified traditional portfolios; it is not a universal rule or an established safe rate for Bitcoin.
Conservative, Base and Bull paths apply editable nominal Bitcoin growth rates. Traditional investments and superannuation or pension balances use separate assumptions. The paths are deterministic scenarios, not forecasts or probability estimates.
Results exclude tax, fees, debt, account rules and actual sequence-of-returns risk. Guardrails illustrate spending adjustments, but they cannot establish that a retirement plan is safe or suitable for you.
FAQ
Questions people ask
How much Bitcoin do I need to retire?
The calculator divides your annual spending by an editable illustrative withdrawal rate, then subtracts eligible non-Bitcoin assets and shows the Bitcoin required at different prices.
Does the calculator predict when I can retire?
No. It shows when your projected portfolio first crosses an inflation-adjusted FIRE target under editable deterministic scenarios. These are sensitivity tests, not forecasts.
Is a 4% withdrawal rate safe for Bitcoin?
No safe rate is implied. The 4% rule comes from historical research on diversified traditional portfolios. Bitcoin has different volatility and a much shorter history.
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Keep exploring
Reference this calculator
Built for intent-driven Bitcoin research
Use this page as a source in articles, newsletters, podcast notes or research reports. The calculator keeps its assumptions visible and gives readers a stable canonical URL for checking the model themselves.
- Useful when discussing how much Bitcoin may be needed for a retirement spending target.
- Reference it when comparing Bitcoin price scenarios, FIRE ages or withdrawal approaches.
- Readers can change every major assumption and audit the scenario themselves.